22 December 2015

Season 38 HOF Analysis - Similarity Scores

A similarity score is a metric designed by Bill James to help compare players to one another.

This process can be used to help compare Capra baseball greats to the average HOFer at their primary position. The logic of these similarity scores is to subtract the point difference for each category defined in the following webpage (see: Similarity Scores). Players are penalized for not obtaining the mark of an average HOFer in a given category. Also, players are not rewarded for being above the mark of an average HOFer in a given category. The reverse is true for "bad" categories, such as strikeouts for batters. You are penalized for being over, and not rewarded for being under. A similarity score of 1000 means that you hit every mark of a HOFer at your primary position.

Hopefully these scores can provide a good representation of the achievements of HOF candidates. This piece of information alongside ERA, OPS, etc. (at what rate was the player producing?), player awards (how good was this candidate compared to his peers?), and a double check on defensive production should help Capra owners make an educated decision on HOF voting.

Below is a breakdown of our candidates:

Average stats by position:

There are a few cons regarding this analysis.

  • It is very milestone driven. There are only two "rate" statistics for every player (BA and SLG for batters, ERA and W% for pitchers).
  • It does not include any defensive statistics. Although, breaking this analysis up positionally will subside some of this issue (for example, the batting marks for a SS should be much easier to obtain than the marks for a DH).
  • It ignores player awards, which should be a large part of the story 
  • Players are categorized by the position they played the most ML innings in.

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