19 January 2015

S34 Capra Playoff Odds 67 Games Remaining


The simulation runs from where a team currently is in the standings and predicts its remaining wins based on the teams expected win %. There is a small adjustment for unpredictability.  These numbers do not account for schedules.

Most teams have played 95 games. The “Trend” is the difference in a team’s total playoff odds from the 1/9 PM games. This is about 27 games ago.

“E” means virtual elimination, not mathematical elimination.

Let me know if you have any questions or suggestions.

01 November 2014

No 300 For Junior?

Junior Hernandez is projected to end season 33 with 13 wins.  This would give him a career total of 224 wins at the end of his Age 32 season.  Let's compare him to the four career wins leaders to see what might be reasonable expectations for Junior Hernandez.

             Wins at  Wins at Age                         Wins     Career          
Name         Age 32   33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  Age 33+  Wins   
Christensen  179      21  18  24  20  18  18  14  --  --  133      312    
Tracy        211      12  14  10  19  16  13   6   2  --   92      303    
Dellucci     171      22  14  14  14  11  15  11   2  --  103      274    
Grim         163      15  24  16  19  14   6   9  --  --  103      266    
Hernandez    224      --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  ???      ???    

Compared to the careers of his peers, even the worst career trajectory has him surpassing the all-time Capra wins total.   Matching Tracy's 92 wins would give Hernandez 316 wins.

Hernandez built up such a huge body of work in his twenties that it seems only an injury could curtail his march to the Career Wins title.  For example, Hernandez won 16 games for Seattle in his Age 20 season and 49 games before turning 23.  In comparison, Christensen didn't even make his major league debut until the age of 23.