11 March 2015

Season 35 HOF Rundown


After a year hiatus, the HOF rundown is back! Feel free to disagree and debate…

No Doubt

Bruce Dellucci – An absolute no-brainer. For the record, he went 278-145 (3rd) with a 2.84 ERA (top 10) over 3720 innings (top 10). He also struck out 3327 batters (3rd). He went to an amazing 11 ASG, and won 2 CYA.

Solid chance

Mel Barfield – An excellent 2B, went to 7 ASGs and won 4 SS and 1 GG. He batted .313/.371/.514 for an outstanding .885 OPS, and added 512 SB. He scored more than 1500 R and drove in over 1200. He’s a very respectable candidate and should garner quite a few votes.

Jamie Bradley – A true ace, Bradley pitched 3771 innings and won 239 games. Combine that with a 3.49 career ERA and you’ve got someone worth serious HOF consideration. He never won the CYA and only went to 4 AS games, but he was the definition of a front-line starter for a very long time. Obviously not in the Dellucci tier, but a good choice nonetheless.

Miguel Perez – An intriguing player, Perez is the all-time hits leader who also contributed with a decent amount of power. He ended up at .299/.393/.467 for an .860 OPS, with 396 HR. His longevity may earn him a HOF slot, with around 1500 R and RBI, and the 3166 H.

Jimmie Franco – An absolute masher, Franco posted a career 1.017 OPS with a .326 AVG! About 2/3rds of his career starts are at C, with the rest at DH. 440 HR, over 1250 RBI and 1100 R. His numbers are certainly HOF worthy, though his low durability cost him many awards, with 3 ASG and 3 SS.

Hayes Corino – Another mashing 1B, and another guy who may not quite get in. Excellent numbers with over 500 HR, 1400 RBI, and a .923 OPS. Might have been a HOFer with a shade more longevity. He did win 2 MVPs, which is huge, but only went to 4 ASGs.

Coco Hentgen – Hentgen played most of his career as an above-average defensive 2B, and really stood out at the position. He hit 463 HR and finished with a .857 OPS. He won 7 Silver Sluggers in 8 seasons, and went to 4 ASG. He scored almost 1500 R and drove in almost 1400. He’s a good choice, but a step behind Barfield for a 2B.

Bud Wilkins – Wilkins played SS, but not particularly well. But he was the best hitting SS in the league for quite a while, so that counts for quite a bit. He ended up at .278/.356/.478 with 338 HR and 310 SB. Almost 2200 H and around 1300 R and RBI. He went to 5 ASG, won 8 Silver Sluggers at SS and 2 GG later in RF. I’m not sure he’s quite HOF quality but I wouldn’t be surprised if he got some support.


Borderline

Abdul Thomas – Is Thomas the C that finally stands out after a glut of “almost good enough” catchers? His slash line of .294/.400/.521 certainly fits the bill, and his longevity is great with over 2000 H, 1100 R and 1200 RBI. He went to 8 ASG and won 4 SS, so the awards say yes as well.

Clayton Rollins  - Or is it Rollins, who as a catcher produced .308/.383/.475 for an .858 OPS. He surpasses Thomas with over 2300 H but is behind with 1188 RBI and 1083 R.  He went to 6 ASG and won 3 SS. So he’s perhaps a tiny step behind Thomas.

Ralph Daniels – Or perhaps Daniels, with perhaps the highest peak, but less longevity? He ended with 428 HR and a .295/.357/.556 slash line. He had 5 seasons of .999 OPS or better. But he only had 3 ASG and 1 SS. I’m not sure any of these guys stand out enough to make it in…

Ariel Cortez – Very valuable pitcher who pitched over 3600 IP. He also won over 240 games, good for 5th all-time when he retired. But with his 4.11 ERA he’s a shade behind HOF quality. 5 All-Star games and 1 CYA.

Stan Coleman – Played 1B and LF about equally, and had great power. Hit 545 HR and drove in over 1500 runs. His .888 OPS means he was really excellent, but not quite elite. 6 ASG, 1 GG, 1 SS.

Dmitri Stafford – Played roughly even amounts of CF, 2B and LF, and was a solid defensive contributor. An offensive threat as well, he finished with 417 HR and 306 SB, with a .802 OPS. He also had good longevity, amassing almost 2600 H. He went to 5 ASG and won a GG in LF. He is probably just below HOF level but may garner a few votes.

Al Cedeno – Cedeno played SS, 3B and RF, almost 2300 H and 1200 R, .840 OPS.  A very good player, but he played in just one AS game, and a GG in RF, and he’s clearly not quite a HOFer.

Gregg Ward – Primarily a 3B in his career, Ward put up .270/.328/.503 with 432 HR and 234 SB. He is another player who was a star but perhaps not quite a HOFer. He did go to 7 ASG, won 2 GG and a SS.

Chuck Coleman – An above-average SS with big power. He had some major seasons, but not great longevity – he only played 11 full seasons. He was probably HOF level at his peak, but didn’t seal the deal. 5 ASG, 1 SS and a late career GG at RF. 

Billy Leary – A corner OF with an .897 OPS is certainly worth consideration, but he played in the early years when you needed a 1.000 OPS or better to stand out. A very good player, but not a HOFer. His 415 SB helped carry him to 5 ASG and he also won 5 SS in RF.

Tomas Barrios – A staff ace who had an excellent career, Barrios probably falls in the not quite category. He won 209 games and won a CYA, along with 4 AS appearances. He also logged over 3300 IP. His career 4.01 ERA is very good, but not HOF quality.

Raul Costilla – A LF with lots of power (526 HR), but just an .853 OPS for his career. Went to 3 ASG and won 1 GG and 1 SS. Not quite enough for this HOF.

No Shot

Geraldo Johnson – Played mostly SS (poorly) and 3B (very well). He had good longevity, amassing over 2400 H and 452 HR. He was certainly a valuable player, but his .785 OPS will keep him out of the HOF. He went to 2 ASG, won a GG in RF, and a Silver Slugger at SS.

Russ Bulger – Played 2/3 of his games at DH, the rest mostly at C. He had a great peak, but only made one ASG. Finished with 455 HR and a .908 career OPS. Those are certainly valuable numbers, and he’s a very good player, but short of the HOF.

Pat Atchley – A 1B with an .881 OPS, 342 HR, less than 1700 H and only 2 AS appearances, Atchley has no shot at the HOF. His claim to fame was his one spectacular career year where he won the MVP.

Edgar Berroa – A mediocre defensive 2B who had some longevity, but nothing spectacular. An .826 OPS with 250 HR and 450 SB is a solid, valuable player, but hardly a HOF candidate.  3 ASG and 3 SS.

Bobby White – A nice save total, at 419, but that’s all that’s particularly outstanding about White. He did pitch a lot, amassing 1400 IP, but with an ERA of 4.08. He notched 2 Fireman awards, but only 3 All-Star games.

19 January 2015

S34 Capra Playoff Odds 67 Games Remaining


The simulation runs from where a team currently is in the standings and predicts its remaining wins based on the teams expected win %. There is a small adjustment for unpredictability.  These numbers do not account for schedules.

Most teams have played 95 games. The “Trend” is the difference in a team’s total playoff odds from the 1/9 PM games. This is about 27 games ago.

“E” means virtual elimination, not mathematical elimination.

Let me know if you have any questions or suggestions.