22 December 2015

Season 38 HOF Analysis - Similarity Scores

A similarity score is a metric designed by Bill James to help compare players to one another.

This process can be used to help compare Capra baseball greats to the average HOFer at their primary position. The logic of these similarity scores is to subtract the point difference for each category defined in the following webpage (see: Similarity Scores). Players are penalized for not obtaining the mark of an average HOFer in a given category. Also, players are not rewarded for being above the mark of an average HOFer in a given category. The reverse is true for "bad" categories, such as strikeouts for batters. You are penalized for being over, and not rewarded for being under. A similarity score of 1000 means that you hit every mark of a HOFer at your primary position.

Hopefully these scores can provide a good representation of the achievements of HOF candidates. This piece of information alongside ERA, OPS, etc. (at what rate was the player producing?), player awards (how good was this candidate compared to his peers?), and a double check on defensive production should help Capra owners make an educated decision on HOF voting.

Below is a breakdown of our candidates:

Average stats by position:

There are a few cons regarding this analysis.

  • It is very milestone driven. There are only two "rate" statistics for every player (BA and SLG for batters, ERA and W% for pitchers).
  • It does not include any defensive statistics. Although, breaking this analysis up positionally will subside some of this issue (for example, the batting marks for a SS should be much easier to obtain than the marks for a DH).
  • It ignores player awards, which should be a large part of the story 
  • Players are categorized by the position they played the most ML innings in.

27 June 2015

Top 20 Home Run Hitters of all Time

+ --------------------- + ------- +
| Name                  | hr      |
+ --------------------- + ------- +
| Darren Owens          | 788     |
| Rogers Glynn          | 764     |
| Rudy Lombardi         | 725     |
| Bruce Harper          | 722     |
| Damaso Colome         | 720     |
| Bruce Kent            | 670     |
| Clinton Anderson      | 667     |
| Pablo Vincente        | 667     |
| Cesar Pulido          | 664     |
| Alex Valdes           | 645     |
| Bosco Gleason         | 626     |
| Al Ontiveros          | 598     |
| Harry Cruz            | 589     |
| Darin McClellan       | 589     |
| Roosevelt Davenport   | 586     |
| Ismael Maduro         | 581     |
| Michael Dransfeldt    | 572     |
| Enrique Astacio       | 562     |
| Claude Long           | 562     |
| Javier Leon           | 556     |
+ --------------------- + ------- +

Season 36 AL East Preview

This AL East preview will compare the franchises in Capra's most competitive and most successful division. Since Season 30, each team has won the division at least once.  The division winner has been the number one AL playoff seed each of those seasons.  And, of course, only once since Season 22 has an AL South team had a good enough record such that they would have finished higher than 3rd in the AL East.

Each team is playing a distinctive role this season.

Franchise Recaps

Charlotte has alternated seasons of 96 wins with seasons of 85 or 86 wins for the last five seasons. As they wait for top pitching prospects Stevie Havens and Albie Estrada to arrive, can 38-year old Everth Cantu work enough magic to keep them in the thick of the playoff race?  It remains to be seen whether Dr. Jekyll is going to the playoffs or Mr. Hyde goes home again.

Cleveland responded to the end of a run of 19 consecutive playoff births by winning 100 games and the World Series in season 36.  Was this the beginning of a new era?  Or was is merely a dead cat bounce as reigning MVP Andrew Flores commences his walk season for the the Spiders.  The Spiders have turned into an average pitching team that relies primarily on the long ball, leading the AL in homers in season 35.

Washington has a reputation as a young, up-and-coming AL East pwerhouse.  However, they've already arrived, averaging 94 wins over the last five seasons.  Much of their reputation for youth is based on the perception and influence of rapidly ascending superstar Vic Zumaya.  This is a team that hits homers and drives in runs like the classic AL East teams, but they are furnished with a few extra weapons: they led the AL in steals, fielding percentage and plus plays in Season 35.

Boston has spent the last few seasons in rebuild mode, focusing on acquiring pitching talent like Harry Ramirez and Sidney Hicks.  This isn't the year that they make any serious moves towards contention.  In fact, there is a lot of solid, veteran talent on the team that won't be around when in Season 39 when Boston hits their stride.

Infield Assessment

Charlotte - Charlotte boasts the ingredients for the best, young infield in the Capra. Their mid-20s #3 and #4 hitters C Ivan Sosa and 1B Otis Matzek are contenders to be MVP finalists and Mariano Franco has already snagged one gold glove at SS.

Cleveland - Two-time MVP Andrew Flores leads a mismatched bunch for one last run.  2B Alex Prinz waits to become the face of the franchise, but his fellow infielders aren't the same quality.  Two 35 year old catchers split time while Hunter Dydalewicz is a decaying glove-only SS.  Recently acquired, top prospect Tomo Lo is expected to play 2B or 3B next season, but looks unlikely to contribute this season.

Washington - Despite a lower profile, Fernando Aguilar is perhaps the most feared hitter in baseball.  Overall, the infield is the top unit in the division with 3B Karl West a prime candidate to emerge as the best AL 3B of the next five years.  The shortstop position is the only concern, as slick-fielding 22 year old Wily Mesa looks to push veteran Victor Duran aside.

Boston - Rule 5 selection Enrique Espinoza is likely to be around for a long time, but solid veterans like B.C. Matos and Luke Markakis are likely to be shipped off this year or next.  Either could bring back young players good enough to be contributors on the next great Expos team.

Outfield Assessment

Charlotte - The Achilles' heel of the Bulldogs is the outfield where natural 3B Omar Romero is gamely holding down the fort in CF while Willie Niese and Tony Callaspo practice their swings while biding their time in the corners.  A repeat of season 35 from Niese might keep this group afloat, otherwise Charlotte might have to dig into their thin farm system for chips to trade.

Cleveland - The surprising Renyel Siquieros exceeded expectations last year, but he is primarily in the lineup for his defensive abilities.  Assuming that he even has the defensive ability to find it, Trenidad Chavez will manning RF for the Spiders.  His bat had better boom in order to make up for his defensive shortcomings.

Washington - With Rich Falk and Brett Alexander in the corners of the outfield and at the top of the lineup, the outfield is devastatingly productive.  33-year-old CF Brendan Michaels should be watching over his shoulder, as CF is the one spot in the lineup that Washington could easily upgrade.

Boston - Roosevelt Sherman could be a bright spot in the outfield as he gets serious consideration for a Silver Slugger in CF.  However, unlike a number of the infielders that are solid veterans with trade value, Mat Grimsley in LF and Todd Gilbert in RF are both four-A players.

Starting Pitching Assessment

Charlotte - Everth Cantu came over in a mid-season deal and went 10-4 to keep Charlotte in the playoff hunt until the final games of the season.  Staff ace Jared Kendrick continues to be inconsistent.  Former #3 overall pick Irv Haren is the wildcard as he returns from his second elbow surgery in three years to provide a much needed spark.

Cleveland - Tuck Dydalewicz leads a solid but unspectacular group.  Max-contract Wilkin Mujica is in season 3 of his deal and has already suffered two major elbow injuries.  Recovery from the second surgery should be complete early in the year and Mujica should join the team before the All-Star break.  Dydalewicz and Mujica could head a formidable playoff rotation, but there are serious questions about depth after off-season deals moved Cleveland's brightest pitching prospect.

Washington - Season 34 Cy Young award winner Christy Marte and Season 33 Rookie of the Year Vic Zumaya are the best 1-2 punch in the division.  D'Angelo Ortiz slots into the rotation at #3, but the former Top 10 overall pick is an All-Star and a solid playoff starter.  Washington's biggest weakness is the back of the rotation.  Once again, expect Zumaya and maybe Ortiz to start 37 or more games as the Expos skip the #5 spot in their rotation whenever possible.

Boston - Lonnie Finley will be the anchor of the Tommyknocker rotation.  Finley was the subject of a lot of interest on the Season 35 free agent market and then dogged by trade speculation all last year as a number of teams pursued him.  The remainder of the rotation is filled with pitch-to-contact pitchers that know how to fill up the strike zone.  Any of them could break out, but it looks as if the plan is for these guys to rely on an above-average defense to keep the Tommyknockers in the game.

Relief Pitching Assessment

Charlotte - The Bulldogs look to be going closer-by-committee, but there is no one on staff with a closer's pedigree and none of the returning pitchers saved double-digit major league games in recent history, this is also an area of weakness.

Cleveland - The Spiders haven't anointed a closer, but John Gong converted 21 of 22 regular season saves and all four playoff opportunities after returning from a second Tommy John surgery in mid-season.

Washington - Pedro Arencibia is installed as the closer, but Brian Martin and Billy Dykhoff might both be better arms in the bullpen.  The biggest concern here is that the bullpen doesn't look as if it can eat a lot of innings.  That won't be necessary if the Top 3 starters are lights out, but if you wanted to try to find a worst-case scenario for the Expos, it would probably involve an over-taxed bullpen blowing leads for Zumaya and Marte down the stretch.

Boston - The slightly wild Albert Merced will be the closer, reprising the role he had in St. Louis when he saved over 200 games in a six-season span.  Tony Duran was signed late and could provide some depth.  Merced is the top closer in the division and could make this the strongest unit in the AL East.

Intangibles and Other

Charlotte has some minor league pitching a few years away, but the window of opportunity for Sosa and Matzek is now and a lot of the support needed for a playoff run - like Irv Haren or 3B Roy Edmonds - is inconsistent.  If things break right, Charlotte wins 85 to 90 games and is in the thick of the wildcard fight.  Otherwise, management will have to decide whether to trade for veteran help or to build towards a Season 40 team that could feature some of the brighest talent in the game.

Cleveland doesn't pitch or play defensive like they did in the Rick Christensen era, but they continue to try to out-homer the opposition.  This has been a recipe for regular season success, but only recently has Cleveland seen more success with this strategy in the postseason.  Cleveland is unlikely to get anything of value in trade for Flores, so they'll have no option but to play the season out and see what happens.  A playoff birth is likely, but it is more likely to be a wildcard than not.

Washington - There is a history of AL East teams making big midseason deals for starting pitching and it wouldn't be a surprise if Washington leveraged a mid-career bench player like Graeme Papelbon or Del Montero that would be an attractive target as a starter for many other teams.  Acquiring a centerfielder could be another option, as Brendan Michaels could be sub-par and Jung-Lee Fukudome, the top minor league CF in the organization, profiles more as a backup.  With an acquisition to help the back of the rotation this team could lead Capra in wins.  Otherwise, solid acquisitions for each of the bullpen and CF could make them the most well-rounded and dangerous playoff team.

Boston - Their top minor league talent is in pitching.  Besides top prospects Harry Ramirez and Sidney Hicks, the Tommyknockers have a number of high-control, pitch-to-contact guys like Morgan Wright and Carlos Reyes on the cusp of contributing.  Only a Charlotte fire-sale keeps Boston out of last place, but depending on the performance of Lonnie Finley, B.C. Matos and Luke Markakis, last place could be a respectable 75 wins or a top 5 draft pick.

Overall with Group Ranks

There appears to be a bit of a blueprint to the AL East teams as they all bear some similarities:  infields with lots of power combined with strength at the top of the rotation, but not a lot of starting pitching depth and middling bullpens.

Washington: IF(#1), OF(#1), SP(#1), RP(#2), Rank: #1, 100 wins
Cleveland:  IF(#3), OF(#2), SP(#2), RP(#3), Rank: #2,  93 wins
Charlotte:  IF(#2), OF(#3), SP(#3), RP(#4), Rank: #3,  86 wins
Boston:     IF(#4), OF(#4), SP(#4), RP(#1), Rank: #4,  70 wins

11 March 2015

Season 35 HOF Rundown

After a year hiatus, the HOF rundown is back! Feel free to disagree and debate…

No Doubt

Bruce Dellucci – An absolute no-brainer. For the record, he went 278-145 (3rd) with a 2.84 ERA (top 10) over 3720 innings (top 10). He also struck out 3327 batters (3rd). He went to an amazing 11 ASG, and won 2 CYA.

Solid chance

Mel Barfield – An excellent 2B, went to 7 ASGs and won 4 SS and 1 GG. He batted .313/.371/.514 for an outstanding .885 OPS, and added 512 SB. He scored more than 1500 R and drove in over 1200. He’s a very respectable candidate and should garner quite a few votes.

Jamie Bradley – A true ace, Bradley pitched 3771 innings and won 239 games. Combine that with a 3.49 career ERA and you’ve got someone worth serious HOF consideration. He never won the CYA and only went to 4 AS games, but he was the definition of a front-line starter for a very long time. Obviously not in the Dellucci tier, but a good choice nonetheless.

Miguel Perez – An intriguing player, Perez is the all-time hits leader who also contributed with a decent amount of power. He ended up at .299/.393/.467 for an .860 OPS, with 396 HR. His longevity may earn him a HOF slot, with around 1500 R and RBI, and the 3166 H.

Jimmie Franco – An absolute masher, Franco posted a career 1.017 OPS with a .326 AVG! About 2/3rds of his career starts are at C, with the rest at DH. 440 HR, over 1250 RBI and 1100 R. His numbers are certainly HOF worthy, though his low durability cost him many awards, with 3 ASG and 3 SS.

Hayes Corino – Another mashing 1B, and another guy who may not quite get in. Excellent numbers with over 500 HR, 1400 RBI, and a .923 OPS. Might have been a HOFer with a shade more longevity. He did win 2 MVPs, which is huge, but only went to 4 ASGs.

Coco Hentgen – Hentgen played most of his career as an above-average defensive 2B, and really stood out at the position. He hit 463 HR and finished with a .857 OPS. He won 7 Silver Sluggers in 8 seasons, and went to 4 ASG. He scored almost 1500 R and drove in almost 1400. He’s a good choice, but a step behind Barfield for a 2B.

Bud Wilkins – Wilkins played SS, but not particularly well. But he was the best hitting SS in the league for quite a while, so that counts for quite a bit. He ended up at .278/.356/.478 with 338 HR and 310 SB. Almost 2200 H and around 1300 R and RBI. He went to 5 ASG, won 8 Silver Sluggers at SS and 2 GG later in RF. I’m not sure he’s quite HOF quality but I wouldn’t be surprised if he got some support.


Abdul Thomas – Is Thomas the C that finally stands out after a glut of “almost good enough” catchers? His slash line of .294/.400/.521 certainly fits the bill, and his longevity is great with over 2000 H, 1100 R and 1200 RBI. He went to 8 ASG and won 4 SS, so the awards say yes as well.

Clayton Rollins  - Or is it Rollins, who as a catcher produced .308/.383/.475 for an .858 OPS. He surpasses Thomas with over 2300 H but is behind with 1188 RBI and 1083 R.  He went to 6 ASG and won 3 SS. So he’s perhaps a tiny step behind Thomas.

Ralph Daniels – Or perhaps Daniels, with perhaps the highest peak, but less longevity? He ended with 428 HR and a .295/.357/.556 slash line. He had 5 seasons of .999 OPS or better. But he only had 3 ASG and 1 SS. I’m not sure any of these guys stand out enough to make it in…

Ariel Cortez – Very valuable pitcher who pitched over 3600 IP. He also won over 240 games, good for 5th all-time when he retired. But with his 4.11 ERA he’s a shade behind HOF quality. 5 All-Star games and 1 CYA.

Stan Coleman – Played 1B and LF about equally, and had great power. Hit 545 HR and drove in over 1500 runs. His .888 OPS means he was really excellent, but not quite elite. 6 ASG, 1 GG, 1 SS.

Dmitri Stafford – Played roughly even amounts of CF, 2B and LF, and was a solid defensive contributor. An offensive threat as well, he finished with 417 HR and 306 SB, with a .802 OPS. He also had good longevity, amassing almost 2600 H. He went to 5 ASG and won a GG in LF. He is probably just below HOF level but may garner a few votes.

Al Cedeno – Cedeno played SS, 3B and RF, almost 2300 H and 1200 R, .840 OPS.  A very good player, but he played in just one AS game, and a GG in RF, and he’s clearly not quite a HOFer.

Gregg Ward – Primarily a 3B in his career, Ward put up .270/.328/.503 with 432 HR and 234 SB. He is another player who was a star but perhaps not quite a HOFer. He did go to 7 ASG, won 2 GG and a SS.

Chuck Coleman – An above-average SS with big power. He had some major seasons, but not great longevity – he only played 11 full seasons. He was probably HOF level at his peak, but didn’t seal the deal. 5 ASG, 1 SS and a late career GG at RF. 

Billy Leary – A corner OF with an .897 OPS is certainly worth consideration, but he played in the early years when you needed a 1.000 OPS or better to stand out. A very good player, but not a HOFer. His 415 SB helped carry him to 5 ASG and he also won 5 SS in RF.

Tomas Barrios – A staff ace who had an excellent career, Barrios probably falls in the not quite category. He won 209 games and won a CYA, along with 4 AS appearances. He also logged over 3300 IP. His career 4.01 ERA is very good, but not HOF quality.

Raul Costilla – A LF with lots of power (526 HR), but just an .853 OPS for his career. Went to 3 ASG and won 1 GG and 1 SS. Not quite enough for this HOF.

No Shot

Geraldo Johnson – Played mostly SS (poorly) and 3B (very well). He had good longevity, amassing over 2400 H and 452 HR. He was certainly a valuable player, but his .785 OPS will keep him out of the HOF. He went to 2 ASG, won a GG in RF, and a Silver Slugger at SS.

Russ Bulger – Played 2/3 of his games at DH, the rest mostly at C. He had a great peak, but only made one ASG. Finished with 455 HR and a .908 career OPS. Those are certainly valuable numbers, and he’s a very good player, but short of the HOF.

Pat Atchley – A 1B with an .881 OPS, 342 HR, less than 1700 H and only 2 AS appearances, Atchley has no shot at the HOF. His claim to fame was his one spectacular career year where he won the MVP.

Edgar Berroa – A mediocre defensive 2B who had some longevity, but nothing spectacular. An .826 OPS with 250 HR and 450 SB is a solid, valuable player, but hardly a HOF candidate.  3 ASG and 3 SS.

Bobby White – A nice save total, at 419, but that’s all that’s particularly outstanding about White. He did pitch a lot, amassing 1400 IP, but with an ERA of 4.08. He notched 2 Fireman awards, but only 3 All-Star games.

19 January 2015

S34 Capra Playoff Odds 67 Games Remaining

The simulation runs from where a team currently is in the standings and predicts its remaining wins based on the teams expected win %. There is a small adjustment for unpredictability.  These numbers do not account for schedules.

Most teams have played 95 games. The “Trend” is the difference in a team’s total playoff odds from the 1/9 PM games. This is about 27 games ago.

“E” means virtual elimination, not mathematical elimination.

Let me know if you have any questions or suggestions.