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Showing posts from 2015

Season 38 HOF Analysis - Similarity Scores

A similarity score is a metric designed by Bill James to help compare players to one another.

This process can be used to help compare Capra baseball greats to the average HOFer at their primary position. The logic of these similarity scores is to subtract the point difference for each category defined in the following webpage (see: Similarity Scores). Players are penalized for not obtaining the mark of an average HOFer in a given category. Also, players are not rewarded for being above the mark of an average HOFer in a given category. The reverse is true for "bad" categories, such as strikeouts for batters. You are penalized for being over, and not rewarded for being under. A similarity score of 1000 means that you hit every mark of a HOFer at your primary position.

Hopefully these scores can provide a good representation of the achievements of HOF candidates. This piece of information alongside ERA, OPS, etc. (at what rate was the player producing?), player awards (how goo…

Season 37 Postseason Preview

Does the HOF have a First Base Problem?


Top 20 Home Run Hitters of all Time

+ --------------------- + ------- +
| Name                  | hr      |
+ --------------------- + ------- +
| Darren Owens          | 788     |
| Rogers Glynn          | 764     |
| Rudy Lombardi         | 725     |
| Bruce Harper          | 722     |
| Damaso Colome         | 720     |
| Bruce Kent            | 670     |
| Clinton Anderson      | 667     |
| Pablo Vincente        | 667     |
| Cesar Pulido          | 664     |
| Alex Valdes           | 645     |
| Bosco Gleason         | 626     |
| Al Ontiveros          | 598     |
| Harry Cruz            | 589     |
| Darin McClellan       | 589     |
| Roosevelt Davenport   | 586     |
| Ismael Maduro         | 581     |
| Michael Dransfeldt    | 572     |
| Enrique Astacio       | 562     |
| Claude Long           | 562     |
| Javier Leon           | 556     |
+ --------------------- + ------- +

Season 36 AL East Preview

This AL East preview will compare the franchises in Capra's most competitive and most successful division. Since Season 30, each team has won the division at least once.  The division winner has been the number one AL playoff seed each of those seasons.  And, of course, only once since Season 22 has an AL South team had a good enough record such that they would have finished higher than 3rd in the AL East.

Each team is playing a distinctive role this season.

Franchise Recaps

Charlotte has alternated seasons of 96 wins with seasons of 85 or 86 wins for the last five seasons. As they wait for top pitching prospects Stevie Havens and Albie Estrada to arrive, can 38-year old Everth Cantu work enough magic to keep them in the thick of the playoff race?  It remains to be seen whether Dr. Jekyll is going to the playoffs or Mr. Hyde goes home again.

Cleveland responded to the end of a run of 19 consecutive playoff births by winning 100 games and the World Series in season 36.  Was this the …

Season 35 HOF Rundown

After a year hiatus, the HOF rundown is back! Feel free to disagree and debate…
No Doubt
Bruce Dellucci – An absolute no-brainer. For the record, he went 278-145 (3rd) with a 2.84 ERA (top 10) over 3720 innings (top 10). He also struck out 3327 batters (3rd). He went to an amazing 11 ASG, and won 2 CYA.
Solid chance
Mel Barfield – An excellent 2B, went to 7 ASGs and won 4 SS and 1 GG. He batted .313/.371/.514 for an outstanding .885 OPS, and added 512 SB. He scored more than 1500 R and drove in over 1200. He’s a very respectable candidate and should garner quite a few votes.
Jamie Bradley – A true ace, Bradley pitched 3771 innings and won 239 games. Combine that with a 3.49 career ERA and you’ve got someone worth serious HOF consideration. He never won the CYA and only went to 4 AS games, but he was the definition of a front-line starter for a very long time. Obviously not in the Dellucci tier, but a good choice nonetheless.
Miguel Perez – An intriguing player, Perez is the all-time hits le…

S34 Capra Playoff Odds & Postseason Preview 30 Games Remaining

S34 Capra Playoff Odds 67 Games Remaining

The simulation runs from where a team currently is in the standings and predicts its remaining wins based on the teams expected win %. There is a small adjustment for unpredictability.  These numbers do not account for schedules.
Most teams have played 95 games. The “Trend” is the difference in a team’s total playoff odds from the 1/9 PM games. This is about 27 games ago.
“E” means virtual elimination, not mathematical elimination.
Let me know if you have any questions or suggestions.