09 December 2013

ERA+

 
I made a little ERA+ calculator in order to take a deeper look at some of the great players from Capra. Of course, I can’t normalize for ballpark, so it’s quite imperfect, but by normalizing for league my eyes have been opened on some players.

First, I did all the Hall of Famers:

Name                               ERA+                  Peak ERA+            (Season)         CYA’s
Brett Tracy                        163                             194                        5                 10           
Rick Christensen               151                             182                        20                5
Trenidad Espinosa             140                             185                        12                1           
Kelly Grace                       139                             194                        17                1
David Wanatabe                139                              251                        5                 0
Christian Grim                  128                              155                        17                3


So far, so good. Grim is the lowest, but he pitched more innings than anybody else and won 3 CYA. There was not much controversy over him, and everybody else has a solid ERA+.

Then I checked some of the starters who have been on the bubble.

Name                                  ERA+                 Peak ERA+            (Season)          CYA’s
Vasco Almonte                     136                          183                      18                    2
Dennys Yamakazi                 135                         187                        7                     3
Diego Ozuna                         124                         149                        4                     0
Ariel Cortez                          122                          216                      19                     1
Ted Davis                              122                          151                      12                    0

I always said Yamakazi was a HOFer despite not getting in, and it looks like Almonte has a good case. He was just overshadowed by Christensen and Grim this season. It looks like it’s fair to have Ozuna, Cortez & Davis on the outside.

Next, I looked at the relievers that have been in the discussion.

Name                                       ERA+                 Peak ERA+            (Season)
Melvin Hernandez                    180                          301                        13
Kevin Myers                             179                          304                        17
Taylor Bowie                            163                          276                        19
Jin Che Chang                          140                           172                        26

Firstly, I never thought Wanatabe was deserving, and this underlines it (my personal belief is that saves are overrated in general, and especially overrated in HBD where there is no “pressure”). But beyond that, what a showing by Melvin Hernandez, who I didn’t give enough credit to. Remember, this number doesn’t include park factor, which would give Hernandez an even bigger edge. I will be supporting him for HOF next year, I think! This also shows that Bowie is a solid step behind, especially considering how many fewer innings he has, and that Chang is probably not in the discussion, unless we can factor in park effects. I still don’t think they would push him up enough to pass Myers.

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