15 January 2011

In the Dynasty Cycle

All Dynasty teams go through a cycle of boom and bust. Young, cost-controlled players win games for rising teams. Expensive veterans win titles for veteran teams. Overpaid veterans drag losers into mediocrity.

So, I took the win totals and salary totals from every team from Capra for the past two years, calculated each teams' standard deviations from the mean for wins, salary and wins per dollar of salary.

Each team was then categorized upon where they wound up. The categories and descriptions are below. Teams were assigned to a month of year to demonstate where they were in the dynasty cycle: teams rise in spring, mature in summer, grow old in fall, and are moribund in winter.

These are teams that are winning more than average, getting more bang for their buck than average but whose total salary is below average. These are the teams in their prime. June teams should win now and win in the future.

Helena, Minnesota, Syracuse, Little Rock and Anaheim.

These are teams that are winning more than average and still getting above average production per dollar but are spending more than average. These are teams that should win now because their windows are going to start closing.

Cleveland, Seattle

These are teams that are still winning, but they are spending more than average and not getting a good return on their dollar. Their windows either have closed or they are about to close. This year might be their one last gasp of hope.

Ottawa, Cincinnati, Monterrey, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, New York, Iowa City, Vancouver

These are teams that are winning less than average, but still spending above average money, even if they aren't getting good production from those dollars. These teams are unlikely to win and need to start rebuilding.

Madison, Scranton, Boston, Pawtucket, Texas, San Jose, Fresno, Jacksonville, St Louis

These are teams that are winning less than average, spending less than average and getting below average production from the dollars they spend. Winning is not an option, but the deadwood is gone and the time to rebuild in full force has arrived.

Baltimore, Florida

These are teams that are winning less than average, spending less than average but getting an excellent return on their dollars. These are the teams with the potential to start winning.

San Juan, Jackson, El Paso, Toronto, Louisville, Jacksonville

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

both interesting and creative-well done, sir