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Showing posts from 2014

No 300 For Junior?

Junior Hernandez is projected to end season 33 with 13 wins.  This would give him a career total of 224 wins at the end of his Age 32 season.  Let's compare him to the four career wins leaders to see what might be reasonable expectations for Junior Hernandez.

            Wins at  Wins at Age                         Wins     Career
Name         Age 32   33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  Age 33+  Wins   
Christensen  179      21  18  24  20  18  18  14  --  --  133      312   
Tracy        211      12  14  10  19  16  13   6   2  --   92      303  
Dellucci     171      22  14  14  14  11  15  11   2  --  103      274   
Grim         163      15  24  16  19  14   6   9  --  --  103      266    
Hernandez    224     --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  --  ???      ???    
Compared to the careers of his peers, even the worst career trajectory has him surpassing the all-time Capra wins total.   Matching Tracy's 92 wins would give Hernandez 316 wins.

Hernandez built up such a huge body of w…

Capra World Buzz Podcast? Episode 5

Due to technical difficulties (followed by about 20 minutes or cursing at a computer screen) the audio has been lost for Episode 5 of the Capra World Buzz Podcast.

Thanks to dcbove for coming on the show. Despite what he says, he was a very good interview. Congratulations to the Cleveland Spiders for their S32 championship. World Series victories are not rare in Cleveland, this being his fourth championship as an owner.

(His girlfriend took him out to dinner to congratulate him on his championship!)

He credited his world series win to solid pitching and a great lineup, which he certainly has. But most of all he credited his win to the Capra World Buzz Podcast Curse.

"When you guys were previewing the playoffs in your last episode, you had great things to say about every team, especially Seattle. Then you got to my team and you dismissed us." -dcbove

For those of you that aren't aware, there is a friendly rivalry between Cleveland and the AL South. And we dismissed his tea…

Equivalent Seasons in S15 and S25

One last comparison...  the goal is to show how significant changes continued to affect batters in the seasons between 15 and 25, seasons which are very impactful on the candidacies of various HoF nominees.

In Season 25, each attribute was expected to be only a fraction of Season 15:
AB: 98.4% (due to less scoring, lineups turned over less often, resulting in less ABs) H: 93.5% 2B: 86.5% 3B: 78.2% HR: 100%  (home runs don't change!  8411 vs 8402 despite 2700 fewer at bats) BB: 94.1%
Therefore, equivalent hypothetical performances would be: s15:  600ab, 170 hits, 70 bb, 40 doubles, 5 triples, 35 hr = (.283/.358/.541) s25:  590ab, 159 hits, 66 bb, 34 doubles, 4 triples, 35 hr = (.280/.343/.519)

Doubles and Triples over Time

Doubles fall significantly from 7794 to 6748 between seasons 15 and 25.
Triples fall significantly from 864 to 675 between seasons 15 and 25.

14% of doubles and 22% of triples disappear between seasons 15 and 25.

Batting Through the Years

Five Minutes with... the AL MVP nominees.

Our meeting with the five AL MVP nominees occurred just before the start of the Wild Card of the S32 Capra Playoffs.  

Reporter:  Hello guys, nice to meet you all, thanks for taking some time out of your busy schedules for this interview.

Andrew Flores:  Busy?  Shit, dude.  We've got a first round bye!  I'm spending the week catching some tasty waves with some international supermodels at my home in California.

Javier Nunez (elbows Flores):  We're very thankful to have finally won our division and had the opportunity to spend some time with our families.

Reporter:  Bosco, the media has you pegged as the favorite to win your third MVP award.  You'd be the oldest player to ever win the MVP.  Do you feel old?

Bosco Gleason:  Old?  I'm not old, I'm Batman!

Reporter (shakes head):  That's an interesting point.  Kaz, you'll be a free agent next year. What's your plan?  

Kazuki Saitou:  Well, it's nice to be able to play half-speed all year in the AL South, b…

Bono Continues To Do Good In World

Congrats for being the world leader in all things good. Including plays. Bono Klesko.

Cash Money Millionaire

Dewey Cash seems to be enjoying his new home in Jackson. Since the trade for Sammy Ontiveros, Cash has registered a 1.211 OPS in Jackson. His team has rattled off 7 wins in a row, and is quickly closing the gap on a wild card spot.

Cash Money.

Season 32 HOF rundown

Here’s my take on this season’s HOF nominees. Some interesting debates are sure to ensue!
No Doubt
Alex Valdes – A career-long member of the Ice, I readily admit my bias here. But Valdes is perhaps the only sure-fire HOFer on this list. He mashed 645 HR with 1600+ RBI and 1500+ R. He stands out from Kent & Pulido with his other slash numbers, as he put up a career .294/.389/.552 line for a .941 OPS. He failed at LF but ended up playing ¾ of his games as a solid 1B. He went to 6 ASG (and couldn’t make it in his LF years!), and won 7 SS, plus an important MVP. Valdes is an interesting test for the HOF, as his raw numbers don’t really compare to the early season mashers, but he stands out among his contemporaries.
Solid chance
Vasco Almonte – There have been few pitchers better than Almonte in this league, His career 210-109 record is excellent, along with a very good 3.31 ERA in over 2900 IP.He only made 4 ASG but 9 times his era was below 3.50, so it’s hard to understand why. He’s comp…

Active Leaders (as of end of Season 31)

Active Hits Leaders
+ --------------- + ---- +
| Name            | hits |
+ --------------- + ---- +
| Miguel Perez    | 3166 |
| William Funaki  | 2637 |
| Coco Hentgen    | 2532 |
| Rolando Pena    | 2457 |
| Geraldo Johnson | 2429 |
| Russ   Steinbach| 2323 |
| Harry Cruz      | 2273 |
| Garry Harrelson | 2158 |
| Gregg Ward      | 2144 |
| Vinny Van Hekken| 2131 |
| Bud Wilkins     | 2125 |
| William Uehara  | 2110 |
| Richard Saitou  | 2005 |
| Johnnie Shields | 1993 |
| Kelvin Torres   | 1990 |
| Abdul Thomas    | 1958 |
| Bosco Gleason   | 1954 |
| Cesar Zorrilla  | 1943 |
| Magglio Bennett | 1929 |
| Charles Huang   | 1903 |
+ --------------- + ---- +
Active Home Run Leaders
+ ---------------- + ----+
| Name             | HRs |
+ ---------------- + --- +
| Bosco Gleason    | 579 |
| Harry Cruz       | 569 |
| Rolando Pena     | 541 |
| Javy Mercedes    | 499 |
| Charles Stevenson| 481 |
| Merv Dorsey      | 478 |
| Hub Kaye         | 469 |
| Coco Hentgen     | 463 |
| Travis Barrett   | 460 |
| Geraldo Johnson  | …
Capra Season 31 Preview

 With another season of Capra baseball upon us, let's look back on the off-season that was, and look ahead at the season to come.

Off-Season Review 

*Free Agent Frenzy
  -Free agency always yields a high amount of activity in Capra, often to mixed results. This off-season was no different. Starting pitchers Carlos Cedeno (New Orleans) and Glenn Tomko (Jackson) were among the big winners as well as well as infielders Gus Li (Charlotte) and Mark Brooks (Chicago). Cedeno was the big prize, keeping teams waiting up until the end of the signing period before eventually inking a four year deal worth $60.3 million. Cedeno has been a solid starter throughout his career in OKC though he is coming off his worst season in which he posted a 4.93 ERA. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher, and while Zephyr Park in New Orleans isn't Coors Field, it's not exactly spacious. Gus Li got a five year deal from the Bulldogs and will be making 20 million this season. Li has…


I know I posted my big post, but I just wanted to put these guys next to each other.




You don't need me to realize these 3 guys are almost identical overall. Rudy has the longevity edge, Louie and Mel have more speed. What one lacks in power he makes up in OBP.  For me, offensively this is more or less a wash. So we look further.

All 3 were 2B's for the vast majority of their careers. As 2B's:

Louie 80 E, 83+, 3-, .984 F%, 4.88 RF
Rudy 111 E, 16+ 46-, .983 F%, 5.06 RF
Mel 169 E, 21+ 38-, .981 F%, 5.90 RF

Louie sticks out a lot here, with his 83-3 +/-. His RF is significantly lower than Barfield, but range factor is such a weird stat, and is heavily affected by the rest of your team. +/- is an individual stat. If I had to choo…

Season 31 HOF rundown

Here’s my take on this season’s HOF nominees. Most of the shoo-ins have been elected, and there were few nominations this year. Should make for some good debate!
No Doubt
Bruce Kent – Kent has classic HOF numbers. 670 HR (6th), 1870 RBI (top 10), 1653 R (prob top 10). He played almost exclusively LF, and though he was a poor defender, he more than made up for it with his bat. Very short on awards, probably due to his defense, but he did pick up 3 ASG and 3 SS, plus the all-important MVP. Not the best all-around player ever, but he’s a no doubter for me.
Solid chance
Louie Hayes – 9 ASG and 2 MVPs from this 2B/3B say he’s a good candidate without even looking deeper. A power/speed threat with 490 HRs and 470 steals, he finished with an .882 OPS.He compares very closely to his namesake Rudy Hayes, but was a significantly better fielder with more speed and more consistency.
Santos Flores – Not quite as high a peak as most HOFers, Flores gets the nod for outstanding longevity at a very high l…