09 December 2013

ERA+

 
I made a little ERA+ calculator in order to take a deeper look at some of the great players from Capra. Of course, I can’t normalize for ballpark, so it’s quite imperfect, but by normalizing for league my eyes have been opened on some players.

First, I did all the Hall of Famers:

Name                               ERA+                  Peak ERA+            (Season)         CYA’s
Brett Tracy                        163                             194                        5                 10           
Rick Christensen               151                             182                        20                5
Trenidad Espinosa             140                             185                        12                1           
Kelly Grace                       139                             194                        17                1
David Wanatabe                139                              251                        5                 0
Christian Grim                  128                              155                        17                3


So far, so good. Grim is the lowest, but he pitched more innings than anybody else and won 3 CYA. There was not much controversy over him, and everybody else has a solid ERA+.

Then I checked some of the starters who have been on the bubble.

Name                                  ERA+                 Peak ERA+            (Season)          CYA’s
Vasco Almonte                     136                          183                      18                    2
Dennys Yamakazi                 135                         187                        7                     3
Diego Ozuna                         124                         149                        4                     0
Ariel Cortez                          122                          216                      19                     1
Ted Davis                              122                          151                      12                    0

I always said Yamakazi was a HOFer despite not getting in, and it looks like Almonte has a good case. He was just overshadowed by Christensen and Grim this season. It looks like it’s fair to have Ozuna, Cortez & Davis on the outside.

Next, I looked at the relievers that have been in the discussion.

Name                                       ERA+                 Peak ERA+            (Season)
Melvin Hernandez                    180                          301                        13
Kevin Myers                             179                          304                        17
Taylor Bowie                            163                          276                        19
Jin Che Chang                          140                           172                        26

Firstly, I never thought Wanatabe was deserving, and this underlines it (my personal belief is that saves are overrated in general, and especially overrated in HBD where there is no “pressure”). But beyond that, what a showing by Melvin Hernandez, who I didn’t give enough credit to. Remember, this number doesn’t include park factor, which would give Hernandez an even bigger edge. I will be supporting him for HOF next year, I think! This also shows that Bowie is a solid step behind, especially considering how many fewer innings he has, and that Chang is probably not in the discussion, unless we can factor in park effects. I still don’t think they would push him up enough to pass Myers.

04 December 2013

Season 30 HOF rundown

 
Here’s my take on this season’s HOF nominees. We got a few in last year to clear out the clutter. A couple more no-brainers this season!

No Doubt

Rick Christensen – I don’t need to say much. 312 W, a 3.14 ERA and 5 Cy Youngs. Slam dunk.

Christian Grim – Would be first if Christensen didn’t retire at the same time! The “Grim Reaper” pitched more than anybody else has, with over 3900 IP, and won the 3rd most games at 266. He finished his long career with a 3.46 ERA and won 3 Cy Youngs along the way. He was also dominant in the post season, going 20-7 with a 2.73 post-season ERA. A true HOFer.

Kevin Myers – The sort of pitcher who only exists in HBD, and the first of this type to truly deserve the HOF. Averaged 140 relief IP per season during his peak, and had a career ERA of 2.62 over 1800 IP. Went to 6 All-Star teams, and would have gone to more had he been a closer, but he would have been less valuable. Double the innings and a way better ERA than Bowie, and there’s really no comparison.

Solid chance

Louie Hayes – 9 ASG and 2 MVPs from this 2B/3B say he’s a good candidate without even looking deeper. A power/speed threat with 490 HRs and 470 steals, he finished with an .882 OPS.  He compares very closely to his namesake Rudy Hayes, but was a significantly better fielder with more speed and more consistency. Are any of the other hitters on the list better all-around players?

Santos Flores – Not quite as high a peak as most HOFers, Flores gets the nod for outstanding longevity at a very high level of production. He played more games than anyone else, with 3,107 games played, mostly at RF. That left him 1st all-time in doubles with 670, 2nd in hits with 3,050, and 2nd in runs with 1,900. He hung on a little too long, bringing his OPS down to .830, but during his peak 14 years (that’s a long peak!) his OPS was .870. During those same 14 seasons he hit 563 2B, 319 HR and stole 578 bases. 6 All Star games.

Domingo Padilla – The greastest base stealer in Capra history contributed in more than one way.  He smacked over 600 doubles and almost 400 HRs.  He played 2B, LF and RF, solidly if unspectacularly. His OPS of .828 is a bit low for the Hall, but by stealing over 950 bases, he managed to score over 1750 runs, putting him at 5th all-time, and in company of 4 other HOFers. He deserves to join their ranks. 6 All-Star games and 5 Silver sluggers.

Damaso Colome – A full-time DH who obviously suffers from not playing the field, but put up astounding offensive numbers. .293/.370/.587 makes for a .957 OPS.  4th all-time in HR with 720 and 7th all-time in RBIs with 1735.  Won an MVP but amazingly only went to 1 All Star game, and just 2 Silver Sluggers. He’s a notch behind Vincente, and I put him behind Maurer too, whose overall contributions were higher.

Vasco Almonte – There have been few pitchers better than Almonte in this league, His career 210-109 record is excellent, along with a very good 3.31 ERA in over 2900 IP.  He only made 4 ASG but 9 times his era was below 3.50, so it’s hard to understand why. He’s comparable to Livan Lee (Almonte was an NL pitcher), but Almonte pitched more, and won 2 CYA. He stands out here.

Jimmie Franco – Franco is the best example of why we need more votes for the HOF.  He has an amazing slash line of .326/.414/.603 for a huge OPS of 1.017! He hit 442 HRs, 1284 RBI and 1103 R. He played quite a bit of (very poor) catcher, and some DH. He only went to 3 ASG and won 3 SS. With those offensive numbers, he should be a HOFer, but comparing one-to-one with all the players above him, I just can’t move him up.

Rudy Hayes – He has a very high peak, winning back-to-back MVPs as a 2B. He didn’t quite put up the gaudy numbers that some of the other HOFers did, with 429 HRs, slightly under 1500 R and RBI, and an .882 OPS. He did contribute over 200 SBs. He also only went to 5 AS games. Without the great peak, he’d probably be borderline. But those 2 MVPs probably put him over the top.

Livan Lee – An excellent pitcher who pitched at a very high level for a pretty long time. An astounding W/L of 212-109, with a 3.86 ERA and 2679 IP.  He twice topped 20 W and was under 3.00 ERA two other seasons. And all this in the AL! A very high level HOF candidate.

Hayes Corino – Another mashing 1B, and another guy who probably won’t quite get in. Excellent numbers with over 500 HR, 1400 RBI, and a .923 OPS. Might have been a HOFer with a shade more longevity. He did win 2 MVPs, which is huge, but only went to 4 ASGs.

Melvin Hernandez – The next best every day reliever, pitched slightly less than Kevin Myers (1677 IP) with a slightly higher ERA (2.87). He went to one more ASG than Myers (7), and won a Fireman award. Certainly worthy of consideration, but probably a step behind.

Wesley Smith – A difficult player to position, Smith was the best hitting SS in the league for almost a decade. Normally, that would be enough to get a HOF nod. He had excellent gap power, hitting over 500 2Bs, and adding 320 HRs and 439 SBs. Career OPS of .878, with over 1500 Rs. But he was out of position at SS, and was a terrible defender (in 1650 G at SS he made 389 E, 8 + and 92 – plays). Despite winning 8 Silver Sluggers at SS he only went to 5 All-Star games. He certainly is not a poor choice for the HOF, but I’m not 100% convinced myself yet.

Sammy King – It’s always funny when two players are so similar, and these two catchers are neck-and-neck. They sport nearly identical OPS – King one point higher at .899. King played a significantly longer, with 7100 PAs. 6 ASG, 3 GG and 2 SS for King, who was better at throwing out baserunners, but Alexander was the better pitch caller.  Both are solid candidates for the HOF.  I would choose King first, but it’s awfully close.

Doug Alexander – Another member of the Fargo Woodchippers dynasty, and another guy who isn’t a bad choice for the HOF.  A spectacular slash line of .327/.425/.473 gives him an OPS of .898. He finishes with 5800 PAs, so his career is a hair on the short side. But he’s one of the best catchers we’ve seen in the league.

Mel Barfield – An excellent 2B, went to 7 ASGs and won 4 SS and 1 GG. He batted .313/.371/.514 for an outstanding .885 OPS, and added 512 SB. He scored more than 1500 R and drove in over 1200. He might get my HOF vote except that the Hayes boys and their MVPs are in the way.

Javier Leon – Another DH whose peak was even higher than Colome, but had a little less longevity. Leon went .318/.379/.623 for a 1.002 OPS! 556 HR and 1482 RBI, 1 MVP and 3 All-Star games. He was a great player, and worthy of a vote, but there’s just too many players ahead of him.

Denny Cooper – Third all-time in SBs with 721, this speedster also got on base and hit for power, giving him an .897 career OPS.  4 All Star games and 4 Silver Sluggers. He also played an excellent 2B.  Another high-level candidate.

Don Wilson – Back on the ballot due to the nomination glitch, Wilson has been the topic of heated debate. Without opening the whole can of worms again, despite his excellent numbers (2900 H, 500 2B, 350 HR, .910 OPS), I don’t think he stood out among his contemporaries at 1B, as he only went to 4 ASG with 3 SS.

Taylor Bowie – One of the top closers we have had in the league, but still maybe not quite dominant enough. He has roughly the same amount of saves (500) and innings (900) as Nerio Miller, but his ERA (3.24), is a bit higher than Miller’s (2.93). And remember, Miller played in a higher offensive era. And most importantly, Nerio didn’t make the HOF. In Bowie’s favor, he went to 8 All-Star games and won 5 Fireman awards. He’s not a bad choice.

Ariel Cortez – Very valuable pitcher who pitched over 3600 IP. He also won over 240 games, good for 5th all-time. But with his 4.11 ERA he’s a shade behind HOF quality. 5 All-Star games and 1 CYA.

Borderline

Lewis Boswell – Another excellent every day reliever who deserves some consideration, but pales beside Kevin Myers. Boswell pitched over 2100 innings, all as a reliever and put up a 1.19 WHIP and a 3.66 ERA, mostly in the AL. He won over 100 games and saved almost 300, and went to 4 ASG (like Myers, it would have been more had he been a closer).

Denny Martin – Another 200-game winner retires, but this one is probably a hair short of HOF. He went 221-124 (.640), and pitched 2925 innings to a 4.09 ERA.  Went to 5 All-Star teams and won a CYA.

Desi Martin – The other Martin also has some impressive numbers, retiring at #4 all-time in wins, with 247. But his longevity is his only Hall claim – his career ERA is 4.45. He didn’t even have a high peak; his best season was probably when he went 19-10, 3.72 for Fresno. Only 2 All-Star games underscore this highly-consistent yet average player.

Sid Watson – Another solid closer, but clearly inferior to Bowie.  Mostly similar numbers – 479 Saves, 9 ASG, 850 IP, but a higher ERA at 3.61. Not quite.

Stan Coleman – Played 1B and LF about equally, and had great power. Hit 545 HR and drove in over 1500 runs. His .888 OPS means he was really excellent, but not quite elite. 6 ASG, 1 GG, 1 SS.

Lou Witt – Played 2B and CF, got just over 2000 H, batted over .300.  A very nice player who finished with an .882 OPS and over 270 SB. He was very good, but not unbelievable. He went to 3 All-Star games and won 4 Silver Sluggers.

Al Perez – Played a long and productive career, amassing over 2300 H and almost 1500 R. A career OPS of .830 while playing some CF and more RF. He went to 8 All-Star games, demonstrating that he was well above average consistently, but just didn’t quite put up big enough numbers.

Al Cedeno – Three similar players in a row, Cedeno played SS, 3B and RF, almost 2300 H and 1200 R, .840 OPS.  A notch behind the other two, he played in just one AS game, and a GG in RF, and he’s clearly not quite a HOFer.

Chuck Coleman – An above-average SS with big power. He had some major seasons, but not great longevity – he only played 11 full seasons. He was probably HOF level at his peak, but didn’t seal the deal. 5 ASG, 1 SS and a late career GG at RF. 

Raul Costilla – A LF with lots of power (526 HR), but just an .853 OPS for his career. Went to 3 ASG and won 1 GG and 1 SS. Not quite enough for this HOF.

Short Career

Dean Brennaman – Won an MVP, went to 3 all-star games, and put up an amazing 1.045 OPS.  But he only played 5 full seasons.  Was old when the league started. Nomination glitch keeps him on another season.

No Shot

Bobby White – A nice save total, at 419, but that’s all that’s particularly outstanding about White. He did pitch a lot, amassing 1400 IP, but with an ERA of 4.08. He notched 2 Fireman awards, but only 3 All-Star games.

Jorge Lima – Had some huge seasons early, but for his career was much too pedestrian for this HOF. 353 HR and and .886 OPS for an outfielder won’t quite do it.

Alex Lopez – I’m a fan of the everyday reliever in this game, but the overall numbers have to be higher.  He pitched over 1300 innings, but 1.37 WHIP and 4.04 ERA aren’t HOF numbers, even in Capra.

Aurelio Astacio  - A sub .800 OPS and no really outstanding moments mean Astacio doesn’t even belong on this list despite being a CF.












































































































































































































































































02 September 2013

RFers with the Most Career ABs

Here are the Top 10 RFs in Capra History as based on Career ABs.

These are probably the most likely candidates for the Capra Hall of Fame based upon their career longevity in RF.

+ ------- + --------------- + ---------- + ---------+ ---- + ------ + --- + --- + --- + ------ + ------- +
| id      | Name            | Career ABs | % ABs RF | r    | h      | 2b  | 3b  | hr  | rbi    | sb      |
+ ------- + --------------- + ---------- + -------- + ---- + ------ + --- + --- + --- + ------ +-------- +
| 1078163 | Santos Flores   | 10689      | 86       | 1900 | 3050   | 670 | 114 | 373 | 1611   | 651     |
| 2614392 | Pep Rapp        | 8111       | 98       | 1251 | 2324   | 378 | 29  | 401 | 1259   | 78      |
| 170488  | Garrett Stewart | 8028       | 90       | 1266 | 2491   | 419 | 45  | 287 | 1180   | 42      |
| 170030  | Clinton Anderson| 9000       | 75       | 1612 | 2599   | 447 | 69  | 667 | 1837   | 155     |
| 641391  | Al Maurer       | 7377       | 91       | 1384 | 2392   | 336 | 26  | 485 | 1381   | 2       |
| 585955  | Alberto Sosa    | 8665       | 73       | 1451 | 2539   | 421 | 56  | 556 | 1666   | 40      |
| 787221  | Matt Kirkland   | 6555       | 88       | 990  | 1792   | 276 | 18  | 383 | 1150   | 9       |
| 2055117 | Alan Greenwood  | 6995       | 81       | 931  | 1921   | 294 | 27  | 347 | 1113   | 1       |
| 392081  | Juan Valentin   | 6113       | 93       | 1164 | 1742   | 386 | 73  | 302 | 1008   | 423     |
| 2614515 | Cesar Pulido    | 9299       | 56       | 1583 | 2495   | 343 | 58  | 642 | 1780   | 221     |
+ ------- + --------------- + -----------+ -------- + ---- + ------ + --- + --- + --- + ------ + ------- +

Note that the arguments for Santos Flores are largely centered around longevity, triples and stolen bases. Amongst long-lived RFs he is average at OBP, below average in RC27 and decidedly below average in SLG.

+ ------- + ------------------- + -------- + -------- + --------- +
| id      | Name                | obp      | slg      | rc27      |
+ ------- + ------------------- + -------- + -------- + --------- +
| 1078163 | Santos Flores       | 0.3566   | 0.4740   | 6.619     |
| 2614392 | Pep Rapp            | 0.3528   | 0.4886   | 6.458     |
| 170488  | Garrett Stewart     | 0.3795   | 0.4809   | 6.993     |
| 170030  | Clinton Anderson    | 0.3468   | 0.5761   | 7.422     |
| 641391  | Al Maurer           | 0.4092   | 0.5741   | 9.225     |
| 585955  | Alberto Sosa        | 0.3451   | 0.5470   | 7.148     |
| 787221  | Matt Kirkland       | 0.3438   | 0.4963   | 6.093     |
| 2055117 | Alan Greenwood      | 0.3298   | 0.4732   | 5.723     |
| 392081  | Juan Valentin       | 0.3531   | 0.5202   | 7.246     |
| 2614515 | Cesar Pulido        | 0.3428   | 0.5248   | 6.572     |
+ ------- + ------------------- + -------- + -------- + --------- +


Also, note that Santos Flores was a poor fielding RF.  He leads the all-time minus plays at RF.  This is not just longevity. Regarding minus plays per inning, he commited:
  • more than any other RF with at least 10,000 innings in RF (15 qualifiers) and
  • 4th most of RFs with at least 5,000 innings in RF (59 qualifiers) (behind Sherry Young, Javy Mercedes, and Rodney D'Amico)
The best rightfielder of all time is Al Maurer.  Based upon the decreasing offense in the current era, Pep Rapp is probably the next best RF.

An outfielder such as Garrett Stewart, who doesn't even warrant mention in HoF discussions might be the best comparison to Santos Flores:
  • Superior OBP, SLG and RC27.  
  • A similar defender (with only 17 minus plays as compared to 128).

01 September 2013

The Hall of Fame Case for Santos Flores

Santos Flores
none
none
Age: 42B/T: R/R
Born: Los Abreus, CU
Position(s): RF
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Santos Flores hung up the cleats after season 26. Here's why he's a hall-of-famer.
  1. Awards He's a 6-time all-star and won the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove at right field.
  2. Consistent Quality He didn't ever get accused of swinging from his heels. Flores never struck out 120 times. He never struck out 100 times. Flores never even struck out 85 times. His low was 50 strikeouts and his high was 81 over a long career. All told he only struck out once per 8 at-bats. Flores's home runs plus stolen bases added up to 55 or better each season from his rookie year of season 8 through season 20. Up until his last two seasons he was a starter, hitting 9 or more home runs and stealing 17 or more bases. He averaged 20 home runs and 36 stolen bases per 162 games for his career.
  3. Okay, time for the longevity stats. He's #2 to Jim Heathcott in at-bats, plate appearances, and pitches seen. He's got 31 more doubles than hall-of-famer Hal Randall. He's #2 in games behind hall-of-famer Rudy Lombardi. He's #5 in hits. He's #2 behind hall-of-famer Rogers Glynn in runs. He's got one more triple than hall-of-famer Walt Cashman without playing in the triples seasons.
  4. Something Different He's not a first baseman or designated hitter. Flores would be the first player known primarily as a right fielder in the hall of fame.
     I wrote that as the S26 playoffs were winding down and I reflected on what a great career Flores has had. Imagine my surprise when Flores didn't retire when Season 27 rolled over! He went on to play two more seasons and add to the lore that has developed around The Best Pure Right Fielder in History (TM). So, in trading a couple of points' batting average/OPS, he's strengthened his case while playing for a dud of a team to end his career.
     To bring you up to date, Flores finished his career #1 in the following categories:
  • at-bats (+210 over Heathcott), 
  • plate appearances (+271 over Heathcott), 
  • doubles (+35 over Randall*), 
  • games (+162 over Lombardi*), 
  • pitches seen (594 over Maduro), 
  • and triples (4 over Cashman* who had 50 triples in the first 2 seasons while the world was triple-happy).
     Amazingly, Flores hit at least one triple every season. Even when his speed dropped into the 30s he hit two triples in his last year. Flores finished 2nd in hits (103 behind Heathcott), 2nd in runs (217 less than Glynn*, 62 ahead of Randall*), and probably #6, 7, or 8 in stolen bases, although the list stops at #5.
* denotes Hall-of-Famer
+ denotes North Star

     So here are my campaign points as I'm wrapping up my rally:
  • #1 in triples and doubles 
  • #2 in hits 
  • 3 years over .900 OPS, 10 over .850 
  • Best season's hard to pick: 8? 10? 12? 15?
  • Gold Glove and Silver Slugger, 6-time All-Star 
  • 10 seasons of 39+ doubles 
  • 15 seasons of 30+ stolen bases to start career

31 August 2013

Season 29 HOF rundown

 
Here’s my take on this season’s HOF nominees. Way too many deserving players at this point – hopefully we can agree on a few and get some people in! I would vote for the first 10 if I could. Sadly, Pablo Vincente joins Desi Rodriguez and Dennys Yamakazi on the list people who should be in the HOF but we couldn’t get enough voters. Please vote if you want to have a HOF at all!

No Doubt

Bruce Harper – Do I need to say more than 4 MVPs? He also won 6 SS (somehow he only went to 4 ASGs though). 4th all-time with 722 HRs, 1st all-time in RBI’s at 2,067, 2nd all-time in AVG at .339, 2nd all-time in runs created. He retired with a .339/.426/.631 line, for a 1.057 OPS. A no-brainer.

Michael Dransfeldt – If the HOF criteria is being the best at your position, there is no doubt whatsoever about Dransfeldt. 11 ASG, 10 SS and 5 GG prove that he was the best 3B of a generation. His raw numbers are fantastic as well, as he slugged .283/.363/.538 for a .901 OPS, drove in over 1600 runs and scored over 1500. Add in the 572 HR and he’s a HOF.

Santos Flores – Not quite as high a peak as Dransfeldt, Flores gets the nod for outstanding longevity at a very high level of production. He played more games than anyone else, with 3,107 games played. That left him 1st all-time in doubles with 670, 2nd in hits with 3,050, and 2nd in runs with 1,900. He might be slightly light on awards, with 6 ASG, and 1 each of SS and GG, but how can you deny this guy the HOF.

Kelly Grace – Still the best pitcher on the list, Grace went 213-143 (.598). He won a CYA, went to 6 AS games, and finished with a 1.22 WHIP and a 3.52 ERA, half in the NL, half in the AL. Great longevity with 3294 IP.

Kevin Myers – The sort of pitcher who only exists in HBD, and the first of this type to truly deserve the HOF. Averaged 140 relief IP per season during his peak, and had a career ERA of 2.62 over 1800 IP. Went to 6 All-Star teams, and would have gone to more had he been a closer, but he would have been less valuable. Double the innings and a way better ERA than Bowie, and there’s really no comparison.

Solid chance

Domingo Padilla – The greastest base stealer in Capra history contributed in more than one way.  He smacked over 600 doubles and almost 400 HRs.  He played 2B, LF and RF, solidly if unspectacularly. His OPS of .828 is a bit low for the Hall, but by stealing over 950 bases, he managed to score over 1750 runs, putting him at 5th all-time, and in company of 4 other HOFers. He deserves to join their ranks. 6 All-Star games and 5 Silver sluggers.

Damaso Colome – A full-time DH who obviously suffers from not playing the field, but put up astounding offensive numbers. .293/.370/.587 makes for a .957 OPS.  4th all-time in HR with 720 and 7th all-time in RBIs with 1735.  Won an MVP but amazingly only went to 1 All Star game, and just 2 Silver Sluggers. He’s a notch behind Vincente, and I put him behind Maurer too, whose overall contributions were higher.

Jimmie Franco – Franco is the best example of why we need more votes for the HOF.  He has an amazing slash line of .326/.414/.603 for a huge OPS of 1.017! He hit 442 HRs, 1284 RBI and 1103 R. He played quite a bit of (very poor) catcher, and some DH. He only went to 3 ASG and won 3 SS. With those offensive numbers, he should be a HOFer, but comparing one-to-one with all the players above him, I just can’t move him up.

Rudy Hayes – He has a very high peak, winning back-to-back MVPs as a 2B. He didn’t quite put up the gaudy numbers that some of the other HOFers did, with 429 HRs, slightly under 1500 R and RBI, and an .882 OPS. He did contribute over 200 SBs. He also only went to 5 AS games. Without the great peak, he’d probably be borderline. But those 2 MVPs probably put him over the top.

Livan Lee – An excellent pitcher who pitched at a very high level for a pretty long time. An astounding W/L of 212-109, with a 3.86 ERA and 2679 IP.  He twice topped 20 W and was under 3.00 ERA two other seasons. And all this in the AL! A very high level HOF candidate.

Melvin Hernandez – The next best every day reliever, pitched slightly less than Kevin Myers (1677 IP) with a slightly higher ERA (2.87). He went to one more ASG than Myers (7), and won a Fireman award. Certainly worthy of consideration, but probably a step behind.

Wesley Smith – A difficult player to position, Smith was the best hitting SS in the league for almost a decade. Normally, that would be enough to get a HOF nod. He had excellent gap power, hitting over 500 2Bs, and adding 320 HRs and 439 SBs. Career OPS of .878, with over 1500 Rs. But he was out of position at SS, and was a terrible defender (in 1650 G at SS he made 389 E, 8 + and 92 – plays). Despite winning 8 Silver Sluggers at SS he only went to 5 All-Star games. He certainly is not a poor choice for the HOF, but I’m not 100% convinced myself yet.

Sammy King – It’s always funny when two players are so similar, and these two catchers are neck-and-neck. They sport nearly identical OPS – King one point higher at .899. King played a significantly longer, with 7100 PAs. 6 ASG, 3 GG and 2 SS for King, who was better at throwing out baserunners, but Alexander was the better pitch caller.  Both are solid candidates for the HOF.  I would choose King first, but it’s awfully close.

Doug Alexander – Another member of the Fargo Woodchippers dynasty, and another guy who isn’t a bad choice for the HOF.  A spectacular slash line of .327/.425/.473 gives him an OPS of .898. He finishes with 5800 PAs, so his career is a hair on the short side. But he’s one of the best catchers we’ve seen in the league.

Mel Barfield – An excellent 2B, went to 7 ASGs and won 4 SS and 1 GG. He batted .313/.371/.514 for an outstanding .885 OPS, and added 512 SB. He scored more than 1500 R and drove in over 1200. He might get my HOF vote except that Rudy Hayes and his two MVPs is ahead of him for me.

Javier Leon – Another DH whose peak was even higher than Colome, but had a little less longevity. Leon went .318/.379/.623 for a 1.002 OPS! 556 HR and 1482 RBI, 1 MVP and 3 All-Star games. He was a great player, and worthy of a vote, but there’s just too many players ahead of him.

Stan Lee – Yet another player whose numbers would be good enough in another system, but will probably not see the HOF in HBD. 462 HR with over 1600 R & RBI, plus 380 SB. A .953 career OPS. 4 AS teams, 5 Silver Sluggers and 2 MVPs! But I doubt he’ll get enough support.

Denny Cooper – Third all-time in SBs with 721, this speedster also got on base and hit for power, giving him an .897 career OPS.  4 All Star games and 4 Silver Sluggers. He also played an excellent 2B.  Another high-level candidate.

Taylor Bowie – One of the top closers we have had in the league, but still maybe not quite dominant enough. He has roughly the same amount of saves (500) and innings (900) as Nerio Miller, but his ERA (3.24), is a bit higher than Miller’s (2.93). And remember, Miller played in a higher offensive era. And most importantly, Nerio didn’t make the HOF. In Bowie’s favor, he went to 8 All-Star games and won 5 Fireman awards. He’s not a bad choice.

Borderline

Lewis Boswell – Another excellent every day reliever who deserves some consideration, but pales beside Kevin Myers. Boswell pitched over 2100 innings, all as a reliever and put up a 1.19 WHIP and a 3.66 ERA, mostly in the AL. He won over 100 games and saved almost 300, and went to 4 ASG (like Myers, it would have been more had he been a closer).

Denny Martin – Another 200-game winner retires, but this one is probably a hair short of HOF. He went 221-124 (.640), and pitched 2925 innings to a 4.09 ERA.  Went to 5 All-Star teams and won a CYA.

Desi Martin – The other Martin also has some impressive numbers, retiring at #4 all-time in wins, with 247. But his longevity is his only Hall claim – his career ERA is 4.45. He didn’t even have a high peak; his best season was probably when he went 19-10, 3.72 for Fresno. Only 2 All-Star games underscore this highly-consistent yet average player.

Sid Watson – Another solid closer, but clearly inferior to Bowie.  Mostly similar numbers – 479 Saves, 9 ASG, 850 IP, but a higher ERA at 3.61. Not quite.

Jim Heathcott – Played 2B/3B, and batted .300.  Comes in with a mediocre .813 OPS.  His claim to HOF is his 3153 H, and would probably deserve some consideration if we had 10 votes each.  But despite his high level consistency I just don’t think he was as good as the players above him.  I know some will disagree, but how many HOFers only play in 1 all-star game?

Lou Witt – Played 2B and CF, got just over 2000 H, batted over .300.  A very nice player who finished with an .882 OPS and over 270 SB. He was very good, but not unbelievable. He went to 3 All-Star games and won 4 Silver Sluggers.

Al Perez – Played a long and productive career, amassing over 2300 H and almost 1500 R. A career OPS of .830 while playing some CF and more RF. He went to 8 All-Star games, demonstrating that he was well above average consistently, but just didn’t quite put up big enough numbers.

Al Cedeno – Three similar players in a row, Cedeno played SS, 3B and RF, almost 2300 H and 1200 R, .840 OPS.  A notch behind the other two, he played in just one AS game, and a GG in RF, and he’s clearly not quite a HOFer.

Short Career

Dean Brennaman – Won an MVP, went to 3 all-star games, and put up an amazing 1.045 OPS.  But he only played 5 full seasons.  Was old when the league started. How is he still getting nominated?

No Shot

Bobby White – A nice save total, at 419, but that’s all that’s particularly outstanding about White. He did pitch a lot, amassing 1400 IP, but with an ERA of 4.08. He notched 2 Fireman awards, but only 3 All-Star games.

Rob Ojeda – An above average reliever, but not spectacular. 850 IP with a 3.92 ERA, plus 284 saves. His closing got him to 6 All-Star games, but it’s not enough to stand out in this crowd.

Carlos Pulido – Gets a HOF nomination for his 527 HRs, but a 1B with a .913 OPS and only 1 ASG doesn’t get a sniff in this HOF.

Adam Williams – A C/DH who hit a nice .307/.413/.507 (.920 OPS), but only 261 HR and less than 1000 R/RBI. 3 ASG and a SS. Not enough.

Jorge Lima – Had some huge seasons early, but for his career was much too pedestrian for this HOF. 353 HR and and .886 OPS for an outfielder won’t quite do it.

Alex Lopez – I’m a fan of the everyday reliever in this game, but the overall numbers have to be higher.  He pitched over 1300 innings, but 1.37 WHIP and 4.04 ERA aren’t HOF numbers, even in Capra.

Aurelio Astacio  - A sub .800 OPS and no really outstanding moments mean Astacio doesn’t even belong on this list despite being a CF.

03 June 2013

Colome vs. Vincente for HOF

I know that I picked Vincente ahead of Colome for the HOF, but I wanted to look deeper because many are choosing Colome first.  Thought I'd share this with you as I go.

Career Overview:

Vincente
2270 G, almost all at 1B, over 17 seasons (S7 - S23)
6 ASG
1 MVP
1 GG
2 SS

Colome
2193 G, all as DH, over 15 seasons (S9-S23)
1 ASG
1 MVP
2 SS

Career Stats:

Vincente
9500 PAs
2527 H, 378 2B, 48 3B, 667 HR
1607 R, 1927 RBI
.305/.393/.603/.996

Colome
9300 PAs
2439 H, 273 2B, 10 3B, 720 HR
1547 R, 1735 RBI
.293/.370/.587/.957

Peak comparison:
(top 8 seasons)
 
Vincente
.321/.403/.780/1.183, 76 HR, 205 RBI
.335/.427/.743/1.170, 62 HR, 167 RBI
.303/.406/.681/1.087, 60 HR, 157 RBI
.337/.446/.636/1.082, 40 HR, 139 RBI
.304/.408/.609/1.017, 48 HR, 142 RBI
.307/.387/.617/1.004, 48 HR, 146 RBI
.318/.411/.620/1.031, 38 HR, 112 RBI
.288/.394/.593/.987, 44 HR, 145 RBI

Colome
.326/.403/.683/1.086, 61 HR, 150 RBI
.304/.381/.701/1.082, 65 HR, 133 RBI
.287/.379/.665/1.044, 57 HR, 127 RBI
.286/.371/.637/1.008, 57 HR, 137 RBI
.309/.396/.619/1.015, 48 HR, 105 RBI
.294/.363/.606/.969, 53 HR, 140 RBI
.286/.362/.615/.977, 56 HR, 124 RBI
.310/.379/.594/.973, 45 HR, 120 RBI


Vincente is clearly better at a glance, over his career, and at his peak.  I'm comfortable with my decision!

Season 29 HOF Rundown



Here’s my take on this season’s HOF nominees. Way too many deserving players at this point – hopefully we can agree on a few and get some people in!

No Doubt

Pablo Vincente – He’s been on the ballot for a while, and I guess it’s because he’s slightly below guys like Owens and Glynn. Stan Musial is slightly below Williams and Ruth, but he’s still a HOFer.  Vincente is certainly one of the top 10 offensive players in the history of the league. He hit .305/.393/.603 (.996). 667 HR (7th all-time), 1927 RBI (5th all-time) 1591 R (11th all-time).  Won an MVP, went to 6 all-star games, and won 2 silver sluggers.  Combines the great peak with excellent longevity, and gets my nod.

Kelly Grace – The best pitcher on the list this season, Grace went 213-143 (.598). He won a CYA, went to 6 AS games, and finished with a 1.22 WHIP and a 3.52 ERA, half in the NL, half in the AL. Great longevity with 3294 IP.

Kevin Myers – The sort of pitcher who only exists in HBD, and the first of this type to truly deserve the HOF. Averaged 140 relief IP per season during his peak, and had a career ERA of 2.62 over 1800 IP. Went to 6 All-Star teams, and would have gone to more had he been a closer, but he would have been less valuable. Double the innings and a way better ERA than Bowie, and there’s really no comparison.

Solid chance

Domingo Padilla – The greastest base stealer in Capra history contributed in more than one way.  He smacked over 600 doubles and almost 400 HRs.  He played 2B, LF and RF, solidly if unspectacularly. His OPS of .828 is a bit low for the Hall, but by stealing over 950 bases, he managed to score over 1750 runs, putting him at 5th all-time, and in company of 4 other HOFers. He deserves to join their ranks. 6 All-Star games and 5 Silver sluggers.

Al Maurer – Career RF who slugged 485 HR while putting up .324/.407/.574 (.981 OPS). Amazingly consistent, he went to 10 All Star Games, won 3 SS and 2 GG. He’s getting my vote this year for being one of the best players at his position for an entire decade.

Damaso Colome – A full-time DH who obviously suffers from not playing the field, but put up astounding offensive numbers. .293/.370/.587 makes for a .957 OPS.  4th all-time in HR with 720 and 7th all-time in RBIs with 1735.  Won an MVP but amazingly only went to 1 All Star game, and just 2 Silver Sluggers. He’s a notch behind Vincente, and I put him behind Maurer too, whose overall contributions were higher.

Jimmie Franco – Franco is the best example of why we need more votes for the HOF.  He has an amazing slash line of .326/.414/.603 for a huge OPS of 1.017! He hit 442 HRs, 1284 RBI and 1103 R. He played quite a bit of (very poor) catcher, and some DH. He only went to 3 ASG and won 3 SS. With those offensive numbers, he should be a HOFer, but comparing one-to-one with all the players above him, I just can’t move him up.

Rudy Hayes – He has a very high peak, winning back-to-back MVPs as a 2B. He didn’t quite put up the gaudy numbers that some of the other HOFers did, with 429 HRs, slightly under 1500 R and RBI, and an .882 OPS. He did contribute over 200 SBs. He also only went to 5 AS games. Without the great peak, he’d probably be borderline. But those 2 MVPs probably put him over the top.

Claude Long – When does a guy with 562 HR, a .922 OPS, over 1500 R, 1700 RBI and 150 SB not make the HOF?  When there’s all these guys in front of him. 5 ASG and 6 SS prove that this player was one of the best at his position for a long while. I feel he’s deserving to be in, so hopefully some of the better players get in and make some room for him!

Livan Lee – An excellent pitcher who pitched at a very high level for a pretty long time. An astounding W/L of 212-109, with a 3.86 ERA and 2679 IP.  He twice topped 20 W and was under 3.00 ERA two other seasons. And all this in the AL! A very high level HOF candidate.

Wesley Smith – A difficult player to position, Smith was the best hitting SS in the league for almost a decade. Normally, that would be enough to get a HOF nod. He had excellent gap power, hitting over 500 2Bs, and adding 320 HRs and 439 SBs. Career OPS of .878, with over 1500 Rs. But he was out of position at SS, and was a terrible defender (in 1650 G at SS he made 389 E, 8 + and 92 – plays). Despite winning 8 Silver Sluggers at SS he only went to 5 All-Star games. He certainly is not a poor choice for the HOF, but I’m not 100% convinced myself yet.

Sammy King – It’s always funny when two players are so similar, and these two catchers are neck-and-neck. They sport nearly identical OPS – King one point higher at .899. King played a significantly longer, with 7100 PAs. 6 ASG, 3 GG and 2 SS for King, who was better at throwing out baserunners, but Alexander was the better pitch caller.  Both are solid candidates for the HOF.  I would choose King first, but it’s awfully close.

Doug Alexander – Another member of the Fargo Woodchippers dynasty, and another guy who isn’t a bad choice for the HOF.  A spectacular slash line of .327/.425/.473 gives him an OPS of .898. He finishes with 5800 PAs, so his career is a hair on the short side. But he’s one of the best catchers we’ve seen in the league.

Denny Cooper – Second all-time in SBs with 721, this speedster also got on base and hit for power, giving him an .897 career OPS.  4 All Star games and 4 Silver Sluggers. He also played an excellent 2B.  Another high-level candidate.

Javier Leon – Another DH whose peak was even higher than Colome, but had a little less longevity. Leon went .318/.379/.623 for a 1.002 OPS! 556 HR and 1482 RBI, 1 MVP and 3 All-Star games. He was a great player, and worthy of a vote, but there’s just too many players ahead of him.

Stan Lee – Yet another player whose numbers would be good enough in another system, but will probably not see the HOF in HBD. 462 HR with over 1600 R & RBI, plus 380 SB. A .953 career OPS. 4 AS teams, 5 Silver Sluggers and 2 MVPs! But I doubt he’ll get enough support.

Taylor Bowie – One of the top closers we have had in the league, but still maybe not quite dominant enough. He has roughly the same amount of saves (500) and innings (900) as Nerio Miller, but his ERA (3.24), is a bit higher than Miller’s (2.93). And remember, Miller played in a higher offensive era. And most importantly, Nerio didn’t make the HOF. In Bowie’s favor, he went to 8 All-Star games and won 5 Fireman awards. He’s not a bad choice.

Borderline

Denny Martin – Another 200-game winner retires, but this one is probably a hair short of HOF. He went 221-124 (.640), and pitched 2925 innings to a 4.09 ERA.  Went to 5 All-Star teams and won a CYA.

Desi Martin – The other Martin also has some impressive numbers, retiring at #4 all-time in wins, with 247. But his longevity is his only Hall claim – his career ERA is 4.45. He didn’t even have a high peak; his best season was probably when he went 19-10, 3.72 for Fresno. Only 2 All-Star games underscore this highly-consistent yet average player.

Justin Terry – Another excellent catcher on this year’s list is not quite good enough to make it. A very solid .883 OPS with 477 HRs, but lacks either superior longevity or the massive peak. Won 4 Silver Sluggers, but only 2 All-Star games.

Darin McClellan – A solid hitter in the long-ball era, he hit 589 HRs and had a .921 OPS.  Despite that he only went to 1 All Star game.  Played 1B, LF and DH.  Doesn’t really stand out.

Sid Watson – Another solid closer, but clearly inferior to Bowie.  Mostly similar numbers – 479 Saves, 9 ASG, 850 IP, but a higher ERA at 3.61. Not quite.

Jim Heathcott – Played 2B/3B, and batted .300.  Comes in with a mediocre .813 OPS.  His claim to HOF is his 3153 H, and would probably deserve some consideration if we had 10 votes each.  But despite his high level consistency I just don’t think he was as good as the players above him.  I know some will disagree, but how many HOFers only play in 1 all-star game?

Lou Witt – Played 2B and CF, got just over 2000 H, batted over .300.  A very nice player who finished with an .882 OPS and over 270 SB. He was very good, but not unbelievable. He went to 3 All-Star games and won 4 Silver Sluggers.

Al Perez – Played a long and productive career, amassing over 2300 H and almost 1500 R. A career OPS of .830 while playing some CF and more RF. He went to 8 All-Star games, demonstrating that he was well above average consistently, but just didn’t quite put up big enough numbers.

Ringo Weston – Played CF, SS and 3B, got over 2300 H and 1300 R, with an OPS of .845. Very similar to Al Perez, he was an excellent all-around player, but maybe not quite HOF quality.

Al Cedeno – Three similar players in a row, Cedeno played SS, 3B and RF, almost 2300 H and 1200 R, .840 OPS.  A notch behind the other two, he played in just one AS game, and a GG in RF, and he’s clearly not quite a HOFer.

Short Career

Dean Brennaman – Won an MVP, went to 3 all-star games, and put up an amazing 1.045 OPS.  But he only played 5 full seasons.  Was old when the league started. How is he still getting nominated?

No Shot

Rob Ojeda – An above average reliever, but not spectacular. 850 IP with a 3.92 ERA, plus 284 saves. His closing got him to 6 All-Star games, but it’s not enough to stand out in this crowd.

Carlos Pulido – Gets a HOF nomination for his 527 HRs, but a 1B with a .913 OPS and only 1 ASG doesn’t get a sniff in this HOF.

Adam Williams – A C/DH who hit a nice .307/.413/.507 (.920 OPS), but only 261 HR and less than 1000 R/RBI. 3 ASG and a SS. Not enough.

Chuck Coleman – A solid player at SS with an .899 OPS, but a fairly short career with fewer than 1500 H and 1000 R. 5 ASG, 1 SS, 1 GG. Nice, but not a HOFer.

Jorge Lima – Had some huge seasons early, but for his career was much too pedestrian for this HOF. 353 HR and and .886 OPS for an outfielder won’t quite do it.

Alex Lopez – I’m a fan of the everyday reliever in this game, but the overall numbers have to be higher.  He pitched over 1300 innings, but 1.37 WHIP and 4.04 ERA aren’t HOF numbers, even in Capra.

Aurelio Astacio  - A sub .800 OPS and no really outstanding moments mean Astacio doesn’t even belong on this list despite being a CF.

Luis Ramirez – Not close